Access thresholds improve the prospects for the development of the methanol industry

The “Circular on Regulating the Orderly Development of the Coal Chemical Industry” recently issued by the National Development and Reform Commission shows that in the future, the annual production capacity of the new methanol project in China must be more than 1 million tons, and requires the transfer of coal into provinces, lack of water, and insufficient environmental capacity. The place strictly limits the development of coal chemical industry. This means that the access threshold for new methanol projects in China is further enhanced.

Chang Yingzhi, a research fellow of China Investment Advisor Chemical Industry, pointed out that due to the relatively hot investment in methanol projects in recent years, the domestic methanol production capacity has expanded more rapidly. At present, the excess capacity of the methanol industry in China is more serious. Therefore, improving the access threshold of the new methanol project will effectively limit the low level of repeated expansion of domestic methanol production capacity, which is very beneficial to the healthy development of China's methanol industry.

According to the statistics of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, as of the end of 2010, there were 291 methanol companies in China with a total capacity of 38.4 million tons, which was more than three times higher than the initial period of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 32%. However, the total domestic methanol production in 2010 was approximately 17.52 million tons, and the average operating rate of enterprises was only about 45%. It can be seen that there is a serious overcapacity in the methanol industry in China.

Zhang Yanlin, research director of China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. believes that China's downstream applications of methanol are expected to be better. On the one hand, with the increase in the opening area of ​​domestic security housing, the demand for formaldehyde is greater. On the other hand, the gradual expansion of the pilot range of methanol gasoline in China and the introduction of national standards for methanol gasoline will further expand the application of methanol. It is expected that in the future, as the related departments strengthen the overcapacity regulation of the methanol industry, the methanol industry in China will enter the normal development track.

The “Investment Analysis and Forecast Report of China's Methanol Industry in 2010-2015” issued by China Investment Advisors shows that methanol-gasoline is one of the four types of petroleum alternative fuels that the National Energy Administration has supported and developed. At present, the "methanol gasoline M85" national standard was formally implemented on December 1, 2009, and the national standard for "car methanol gasoline M15" has also passed the review of experts and reported to the National Standards Commission. It is expected that it will be formally introduced in the near future. .