On November 21st, Zuo Yuanhuai, chairman of Maodi, a leading solar cell company in Taiwan, returned to Taiwan from the United States. It has been raining for several days, and there is not even a little sunshine, and it is not good news that the foot has stepped on the plane and greeted Zuo Yuanhuai to return to China. Motech's competitor, Xinguang, just announced that it will buy the solar energy company Wangneng of Delta Group in the second phase, with an annual output of one. Nine GW (gigawatts) squeezed out of Modi's one. Five GWs have become the largest solar energy company in Taiwan's battery capacity. This shocking merger and acquisition case can be said to be the first step in Taiwan's solar industry waiting for a long time. At the same time, the market is full of surprises and surprises. Everyone is also very curious. Motech, the gifted student of Taiwan's solar energy industry, was recently announced by the major shareholder TSMC to become an investment shareholding, and it is possible to lose the "rich father"; nowadays And lost the leading throne, how should Zuo Yuanhuai, who has internal and external problems? ■Do not fight for production capacity, it is said that the profit model is inevitable. "To be honest, (the combination of Sunlight and Wangneng) has a disfigurement on Modi. It used to be the biggest capacity in Taiwan. Now let them surpass it." Zuo Yuanhuai is accepting "Today" Zhou Zhou said with a smile. Modi entered the solar energy industry in 1999 and became the first battery company in Taiwan. He has always been proud of his leading capacity. "But the market has changed," Zuo Yuanhuai smiled. "This wave of solar energy is the worst in history. It is no longer a time to fight for capacity and scale economy. The key is to find real money." Profit mode." "In any case, consolidation is inevitable. In the end, there will be only two or three solar companies left in Taiwan and China." He said yes, Xu Suncheng, the new chief financial officer, believes that in the next one to two years, This will happen. As the interaction between the two sides of the solar energy company has become more frequent, "I know that there are several companies talking about it now," Zuo Yuanhuai said. "In my opinion, in the future, only Chinese manufacturers can survive, and Taiwan?? should be all gone." Then, the solar-powered old man said the following words in an attitude that greeted the ending: "Of course we want to be a long-standing company, using the name Moody?? We have been established since 1981 and now, Shareholders are also proud of being a Taiwanese company, but??" Zuo Yuanhuai hung in the air and then smiled a few times. The rain outside the window continues, and what is reflected in the eyes of Zuo Yuanhuai is the dark cloud outside the window, or the future of Taiwan's solar industry? ■Overcapacity, no difference in products, Taiwan factory and Taiwan factory have no meaning "Taiwan's solar energy has a problem: everyone is doing batteries, and everyone loses money. After the merger, the bigger the capacity, the more money it will pay, the less meaningful." Zuo Yuanhuai points out the ills of the Taiwanese industry. Looking at the solar energy industry in Taiwan, we will find that most of the companies are concentrated in the middle of the "smile curve", that is, the battery with the least profit, the middle of the module, and the upstream materials and downstream systems. Blocks, companies are few. Worse, the global solar cell capacity is now seriously overcapacity, and the production capacity is doubled more than demand. "If the merger of Taiwanese companies can increase the profit potential, it is a good thing, but it has not really happened yet." Because, compared with global production, Taiwan's production capacity is still too concentrated in the battery, and it does not reach economies of scale. "With TSMC, more than 50% of the global foundry's production capacity is in it, and technology is surpassing its competitors, so it has economies of scale and can make a name for the wind." Zuo Yuanhuai said: "But solar energy is Taiwan. The "four major mischievous businesses" are the weakest and the only capacity lost to the mainland." Although Lin Kunyi, chairman of Xinyang, believes that the combined company can reduce production and R&D costs, both Moody's and the combined new daylight account for less than three percent of global production. "So it is very difficult to achieve economies of scale with influential and bargaining power," Zuo Yuanhuai said. In contrast, many manufacturers in China, such as GCL-Poly's silicon wafer production capacity, has eight GW. "This is called the wind and rain! Compared with them, we are still far away." Zuo Yuanhuai lamented. Taiwan is not as prominent as China's economies of scale. "Our conversion efficiency is better than others in terms of quality, but it is not so good to be differentiated." A solar energy industry pointed out: "Now the battery price has fallen to this point, China has a pitch less than you (○. 2% conversion efficiency), you are 18%, others are 17.8%, not bad for customers, or use price to kill you." Therefore, in a red sea, Taiwan and the mainland are longer than others. "Everyone is full of capacity utilization, but it is selling one piece, losing one piece, desperately killing the price, no one wants to fall down first." Zuo Yuanhuai said. At the same time, in Europe and the United States, the largest industrial consolidation in history has been set off. ■The big one is Evergrande, this consolidation game has fallen behind Taiwan According to the statistics of the US Investment Bank, the total number of solar consolidation projects in Europe and the United States in 2011 totaled more than 120 pieces, and only 24 of them were produced in Asia, the main source of solar energy. But now even the Chinese government has begun to organize the industry. In September this year, the National Development and Reform Commission of China proposed a “six big six small†solar support program, providing government-guaranteed loans to six large and six small solar companies to build power stations, and the rest will receive Strict loan restrictions. The market's estimated total guarantee will exceed RMB 1 trillion, and this will reduce the number of existing 500 solar cells and module factories in China by more than half. When the international tide has been in full swing, Taiwan is only beginning to do industrial integration, I am afraid it is too late. "And the future consolidation will not be Taiwanese to Taiwan, but China and Taiwan." Zuo Yuanhuai points out a cruel fact: "Their "big six" (scale) are bigger than us," "Six small" is similar to us. No matter how we integrate, there is no scale to go to China." Zuo Yuanhuai pointed out that the current cross-strait manufacturers have not been so anxious to finalize the case. First, because the EU's anti-dumping has not yet been determined, everyone is still waiting to see. "In the United States, the double anti-counterfeiting case (anti-dumping, countervailing) only prohibited China's battery imports, there is no forbidden module. So China will put the battery to Taiwan and make its own module." Now the EU investigation has not yet been released, but if the EU bans China's battery sales, "then they are likely to buy our battery factory." Zuo Yuanhuai said. "Second, now everyone doesn't have much cash in hand. So if you talk about the merger, there is only one way to change shares." But now many listed companies in the US, including Saiwei, Suntech and other big companies, because The stock price is lower than one dollar and may face the fate of the market. "So now the willingness of Taiwanese factories is not high. When China's own solar energy industry is finished, this wave of cross-straits will come." Gao Hongxiang, consultant and team leader of the solar photovoltaic industry, is not so pessimistic. "If the EU's double-reaction is established, these battery capacity in the mainland will instead become "useless capacity". It is more reasonable to sell equipment to Taiwan than to remove factories from other countries. Let us produce and sell them through them. Group. Cross-strait cooperation is not necessarily who buys who." He pointed out. "The solar power plants have been losing money since the second quarter of 2011. Everyone must find a profit model." In fact, the strategic integration with Chinese companies is indeed a living path for Taiwan's solar industry. "Compared with horizontal integration, the benefits of vertical consolidation are naturally higher, allowing the battery to be integrated with downstream modules and systems." Zuo Yuanhuai said. "Going downstream, it is natural to merge with China, not with Taiwanese companies. Because their modules and systems are much stronger than us." The profit model in Zuoyuan Huaikou is here. ■Taiwan factory road, master the system business opportunities to take the Chinese out of the road A system operator in China pointed out that the system must be considered from the power plant design to the related equipment. Although the demand for funds is high, "it is not like selling a piece of battery, the system gross profit margin is at least 20% to 30%. ." "Taiwan will also go in the direction of the system in the future. But it is not easy for Taiwan companies to be small in scale for the system." Zuo Yuanhuai said, "The system is more like the construction industry. You have to work with local equipment manufacturers. Land merchants approached. In other words, if you step into the downstream, you will no longer be able to fight alone. The new Sunshine's choice to form an alliance with Delta Group is to focus on the financial support of Delta and the investment in the solar energy system, which can be used to sell batteries. "But Taiwanese system manufacturers are still in a minority. Really doing hundreds of MW (million watts) in foreign countries, or going to GW, Taiwan is still very difficult." Zuo Yuanhuai admitted that Taiwan has to play the world this time, still have to Rely on China. Zou Xiyuan, chief operating officer of China Poly GCL, pointed out that in the next year, it will be a big battle for global solar energy. "It is too late for Taiwanese companies to do their own downstream! Chinese manufacturers are making terminals for US$20 million and US$30 million per year. How can the brand be played? For Taiwanese companies, the most important thing is to find a good partner." The Chinese manufacturers who mastered Haikou have become Taiwan's only choice. A while ago, China’s LED leader Sanan became a shareholder in the Taiwanese market, causing many controversies, but Zuo Yuanhuai’s attitude toward Chinese capital is still welcome. If Chinese capital is to buy and buy Modi, Zuo Yuanhuai leaves an intriguing answer: "NeverSayNever! (Never say it will not happen) Never shut the door!" It seems that the consolidation of the solar industry, if there is a case of cross-strait integration in the future, it should not be too unexpected. Forging Parts,Metal Forging Parts,Stainless Steel Forging Parts Zhulian Electric Appliance Co., Ltd. , http://www.jx-diecasting.com