It is not a dream to raise the price of coal by 700 yuan/ton.

Abstract According to the information transmitted from the recent two-stage guidance price of Fengmei thermal coal, the offer of the northern port has ended its previous decline in the past few days, and it has begun to stabilize and rebound, and has continuously increased by 5-6 yuan/ton. As of today, Fenggang Power Coal Qingang 5500 offer has been from the low 6...

Judging from the information transmitted by the recent two-stage high-altitude thermal coal guide price, the offer of the northern port has ended the trend of continuous decline in the past few days, and has begun to stabilize and rebound, and has continuously increased by 5-6 yuan/ton. As of today, the price of Fenggang Power Coal Qingang 5500 has risen from the low of 630 yuan / ton, to 640 yuan / ton, coupled with strong expectations of rising coal prices, port quotations are on the rise, if the general trend remains unchanged, the coal price will be 700 again. Yuan/ton will not be a dream!

Today's think tank believes that the port's coal price has continued to rise after the sharp decline, indicating that the NDRC's policy pressure is limited. Under the strong demand of downstream demand, the port offer is about to usher in a new round of game and upswing. .

First of all, the coal price of the place of origin has increased frequently, and the drop in port coal price has not had any impact on the coal price of the pit. After today's think tanks have been verified, the mines in Yulin District have recently raised their sales prices. Jinjitan and Hanglai Bay have raised their respective coal prices by RMB 10/ton, and individual mines in Shenmu have also raised their prices today. The sales price of coal, and according to local traders, after the price of each mine is raised, sales are still hot, and the queuing phenomenon of coal-pulling vehicles is serious. Coal mines are almost out of stock. The continued strong coal price in the pit is bound to form a strong cost support for the port coal price!

Secondly, the daily power consumption of downstream power plants continues to be high, and the demand is strong and strong. Today's think tank big data center shows that as of yesterday, the six major electric power stocks in the coastal area were 1,256,740 tons, the daily consumption was 760,700 tons, and the available days of coal storage were 16.5 days. Moreover, according to weather forecast, the heat in the north will increase significantly in the next few days. North China, Huanghuai and Northeast China will continue to be hot above 30 °C. In the southern region, the highest temperatures in most parts of Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan remain above 30 °C. What is more interesting is that Guangzhou Power Grid yesterday hoisted the red peak-breaking execution signal for the first time this year. It will take power-off measures for some industrial users, and announced that its grid operation load has increased significantly. There is a large power supply gap in the province. Near the peak summer season, the subsequent high temperature weather will continue. Today, the think tank expects the daily power consumption of the power plant to maintain a high level of 80-900,000 tons and keep it running.

Third, the railway capacity is tight, and the release of production capacity is limited, which is good for coal prices to continue to rise. From the perspective of supply and demand, the state is encouraging the main production areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia to accelerate the release of high-quality production capacity, requiring Sanxi to increase production by more than 300,000 tons per day. If it can enter Hong Kong in half of the increase, the coastal power plant will have a capacity of 950,000 tons. Daily consumption can also be met. However, can capacity be effectively released? Today's think tank was informed that in the recent railway transportation demand meeting organized by the Shanxi Provincial Economic and Information Committee, the responsible comrades of the Taiyuan Railway Bureau said that the various transportation lines belonging to the Taiyuan Road Bureau are in full load and the capacity has become saturated. And also expressed his best efforts to increase the capacity of the five major coal companies. However, near the peak of summer, can the capacity increase by a few points?

In summary, the current coal mines in the Sanxi area are basically free of stockpiles, and the production supply is insufficient. In addition, the railway capacity is tight in some areas, the production capacity is limited, and with the continued strong downstream demand and the continuous digestion of port inventory, the production is increased. The pressure on supply will be further increased. Without the strong intervention of the policy, the port coal price will unstoppable to break through the barrier of 700 yuan/ton!

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