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Tu Jun: Hotspot conversion is a short-term phenomenon Tu Jun (Shanghai Securities Strategy Analyst): Well, we think that in the short term, it is true that the market's hot spots are centered on some large market value varieties, like the real estate sector, like the colored plates mentioned just now. We are doing such a hotspot switch, but we generally think that the market style is completely unmatched by the transition from the small market capitalization plate to the large market value segment. The current large-value market segment is the most important active foundation and we believe it is a foundation. The face of oversold bounce, of course, it also has some external factors, if it is external factors, then the continuous rebound of the recent US dollar index and the continued rise of international commodity prices, there is a large support for large market value varieties, while from Looking at the domestic situation, the over-expectation of an affordable housing construction scale next year will also give power to some sectors like the steel sector, which has oversold and rebounded. Looking at the overall situation, we believe that current domestic liquidity or fundamentals do not support large The market value plate generates a trend trend, everyone is currently concerned about the focus At the Central Economic Work Conference to be held this weekend, the current overall monetary policy has also shifted from a moderately loose to a stable one in the previous period. We feel that the entire market does not support the trend of the large market capitalization block under a relatively wait-and-see atmosphere. As for the sex market, the current hot spot has shifted from a small market capitalization block to a large market capitalization block, which is only a short-term phenomenon.
Tu Jun: The non-ferrous metal sector will continue to be active in the range shock Tu Cun in the future: Well, from the situation of colored plates, we think that there are two main parts to the judgment of the colored plate market. One depends on its financial properties, and another looks at it. The actual property, non-ferrous metal plate in the third quarter of the chain showed a larger rebound, we feel that the fundamentals of the overall non-ferrous metal sector is picking up, but the overall valuation is still high, so that we as a whole that the decisive factors determine the fluctuations of colored plates, It is still its financial nature. The right to determine the financial attributes is still external. From the external point of view, we feel that judging this factor is more complicated. The fluctuation of the U.S. dollar depends mainly on the U.S. economy and the European economic situation. Judging from the current situation The non-farm payrolls data released by the United States last week caused the market to lose sight of the fact that it was more than expected. The market has produced an expectation for the further implementation of a quantitative easing policy in the United States, and in Europe, the Irish crisis has also been delayed. Good solution, so say that after the dollar has rebounded Fall, the overall follow-dollar change is quite complicated, so we believe that the future trend of non-ferrous metal sector may be showing a range-bound active a trend, resulting in market trend conditions still uncertain.
He Ping: The non-ferrous sector is a technical rebound He Ping (Strategic Analyst, GF Securities (52.55,0.26, 0.50%)): For the non-ferrous metals sector, I personally believe that it is still in a rebound, which is a technical rebound. From the perspective of its entire real economy, the entire In the economic recovery, in foreign countries, the economic recovery in the United States and Europe is still in a slow state. The demand for its holdings is still insufficient. This piece is still subject matter. Under the circumstances of inflation expectations, under the condition of excess liquidity, One hype, I think the current situation, the broader market in the early highs, after the National Day, the rise of non-ferrous metals and coal, there are more fixed disk above, the main body has some parts of the organization, there are some acts of self-help, I think At present, it is a technical rebound. In addition, from the perspective of the US dollar, the dollar I see will have a trend at the previous low point. At present, it forms a large triangle and the trend of the US dollar is estimated to be before the first half of next year. Is a trend of a wave band shake, then the impact on commodities, I personally think it is a Phased band, so I think it's trending market, I still do not have.
Ji: Regarding the prospects of the Fed's expansion of the quantitative easing policy, whether there will be a new round of quantitative easing policies, etc., a series of issues are all an important factor affecting the current international economic trend. At the same time, it will also have a significant impact on the current development of certain sectors of the A-share market, such as the non-ferrous metal sector, so let's connect Wen Tianna. He is a member of the Hong Kong Securities Industry Professional Association. Listen to Wen Tianna’s judgment on these issues, Tenne and Hello, Fed **Bernanke has already stated his position and does not rule out expanding the scale of the second round of quantitative easing policy. He said that he is answering questions from some people. At the time, what he said was very sleek and very subtle. From your judgment, this possibility is not great.
Wen Tianna: Whether the third round is launched depends on the effectiveness of the second round of Wen Tianna (Committee of the Hong Kong Securities Industry Professional Association): I think the possibility is still relatively large. We have seen that the second round of quantitative easing policy did not start long before. However, because our funds did not enter the real economy of the United States, we went to the stock market, or to the commodity and price resources sectors. So for the actual role of the United States, it basically failed to achieve the desired results. I think In the third round of promotion, the opportunity to strengthen the second round of quantitative easing policy is quite large. Therefore, this fundamental market for the supply of dollars will bring about some impact on the entire capital market. In this regard, investors must pay attention to paying attention.
Ji Hao: Tian Na, what is the future trend of the trend of the US dollar? We saw some time ago that the US dollar trend is a strong rebound. Then there will be a downward trend. What kind of shape will your future judgments show?
Wen Tianna: The US dollar will remain weak. Wen Tianchen: I think the trend of the US dollar really needs to be expanded with the second round of quantitative easing policy on the basis of 600 billion U.S. dollars. If the round really exits, I think this reflects that the supply of the dollar will increase substantially. At the same time, in the context of a low interest rate, the US dollar may continue to weaken in the next 12 months. This pair of US dollars is a global one. The resources section and the non-ferrous metal sector will have far-reaching effects. In the past few days, we have already seen a very significant increase in the price of gold. Of course, there may be some increase in the high level. It is the investors must pay attention to the trend of the US dollar which has an important impact on the global economy.
Ji Hao: Thank you, thanks to Wen Tianna’s judgment on the future trend of the US dollar. From his perspective, he judged that between the next 12 months, the US dollar could weaken in the next 12 months. We all There is a rule in the market. This rule has formed the timing of our thinking. What is the trend? That is, the US dollar has fallen. The A-share market, such as non-ferrous metals and coal, will surely rise in these resources. This probability is still very large. Under the current circumstances, we cannot continue to rely on the laws we have obtained in past market transactions. This kind of thinking is going to grasp the trend of future colored plates. Let's listen to our studio from Shanghai. Guest guests Tu Jun and He Ping in Shenzhen Studio, as well as our invited guests in Beijing, we will discuss this hot topic together. We have to connect here is Tu Jun, Tu Jun, hello, then if the US dollar is in this paragraph If time continues to weaken, then what is the promotion of the colored plate market? Will the US dollar weaken, and the colored plates will move quickly? Send this trend then, Tu Chun, your point of view.
Tu Jun: The trend of the non-ferrous sector is affected more by the internal and external liquidity Tu Jun: Yes, we continue this viewpoint on such issues. Actually, at present whether it is the A-share market as a whole, or the judgment of the non-ferrous sector In fact, it is influenced by two factors. One is external liquidity, and the other is internal liquidity. In the last round of market conditions, we actually saw that there was a blow-up in the broad market. It was two liquidity, two internal and external flows. The expectation of sufficient sex has led to this kind of market. Now that everyone's expectation of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy has been further strengthened, the external market has performed relatively well, and both the commodity market and the peripheral stock market have continued to rebound. It rose, but we saw that internally, including the entire A-share market, there are also non-ferrous metal plates, which are weaker than the external market. The fundamental reason is that due to the current internal liquidity, a change has taken place. Then, especially in the previous period, everyone saw that next year, Monetary policy will shift from loose, moderately loose to robust, I think currently Mobility does not support a relatively large market colored plates appeared, the dollar continued to decline, colored plates market is limited.
Ji Ji: Tu Jun believes that we must first consider the internal, that is, the domestic market itself, he has his own laws, but also take into account the changes in the international market at the same time, we must superpose the situation between the two to judge, In the same situation when this happens, it is still more important to judge from the internal situation. Domestic policies, domestic liquidity is not, whether the domestic market demand is to support the rebound of colored plates. Let's make a re-entry with He Ping on this topic. Communication, He Ping, how is your opinion?
He Ping: The impact of relevant monetary policies on the stock market is even greater: The relationship between the US dollar index and the stock market, I also said earlier, that is, since 05, basically a negative correlation, I personally think this aspect is a The strengthening of the international economic ties, and in terms of liquidity, I think the main thing is the promotion of funds. It is a main force of the hedging funds, including some of the major international organizations. It is the US dollar, which is an increase. Under the circumstances, then the overall situation is that non-ferrous metal plates and oil, but we think that this situation may still occur within half a year. However, after half a year, I don’t think I’m entering. Why? After six months, I feel that if the U.S. economy changes and its recovery, it is possible that the U.S. dollar index and its U.S. stocks, including large commodities, may rise. Why? After this kind of economy, after the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the demand for non-ferrous metals will increase in the real economy. At the same time, the strengthening of the US economy will also stimulate the positioning of their US dollars. I think that in a certain period of time, it is the same direction. In this change, I personally feel that the negative relationship itself depends on the domestic economic recovery of the United States, the recovery of the global economy, and at present our domestic words, the economic recovery is relatively fast, and this one's own liquidity in the United States and including We ourselves, but also to stimulate the economy put a lot of money, this may be related to monetary policy may have a greater impact on the stock market.
Ji Hao: So He Ping’s point is that we should not only pay attention to the changes in the non-ferrous plates and the fundamentals of the international market, but more importantly, we must pay attention to the changes in the entire domestic policy. Only in this way can we determine the future development trend of colored plates. We The background of the international environment was just talking to everyone. That is to say, the change in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar will affect the domestic non-ferrous metals sector. Then we will take a closer look at the fundamentals of the industry. What kind of colored plate is in what kind of state, we are connected through the phone below is the chief analyst of the non-ferrous metals industry of Cinda Securities Normal Haibo, Haibo, hello, recently colored industry, its fundamentals are not one Great changes, what is your judgment?
Fan Haibo: Quantitative easing boosted non-ferrous price increase Fan Haibo (the chief analyst of the non-ferrous metals industry of Cinda Securities): Non-ferrous metals are not the same as the two distinguished guests. The price of non-ferrous metals, in fact, the domestic price is linked with the international market, then To a large extent, it is decided on the international market price. From the point of view of quantitative easing now, including the second or even the third period, the amount of quantitative easing is very large, then in this supply and demand fundamentals, plus money Boost, boosted by quantitative easing, now this, last night, gold and copper hit record highs last night. It seems that the relationship with China is not too great because China, after all, even if it has recently raised interest rates, does not raise interest rates. Well, it is hard to influence international liquidity in the short term. I think so.
Ji Hao: Judging from your judgment, at present, in the non-ferrous metal sector, we can see that its correlation with the U.S. dollar index has undergone some changes. Yesterday we saw the inside of colored plates. For example, the gold plate rose better, but to At present, as of today, it seems that this market has become a one-day tour. The gold sector is in a state of decline in the colored sector. Judging from your judgment, if at this point in time, investors should pay attention. Colored plate, what do you want to pay attention to which sub-blocks in these plates.
Fan Haibo: Focus on gold, tin and other sub-industries Fan Haibo: If we consider this from the fundamentals, it should be gold, copper, and tin. These three varieties will continue to hit a record high.
Ji Hao: What do you think will continue to hit a record high? What are the reasons?
Fan Haibo: Because of the shortage of fundamentals, gold is a safe haven, tin is also facing shortages, and the downstream demand is very strong. There is also electronic aluminum. For example, the sales of electronic products represented by the iPad are also very popular. The year should be very hot, I want to say that gold and copper, especially copper is now off-season, hitting a record high in the off-season, entering the first quarter, entering the peak season, after starting stocking, is a constant process, the company's performance is also There will be rapid changes.
Non-ferrous metal plate is expected to add light at the end of the year
Moderator: Dian Jiyu: In the recent slump in the broader market, the trend in the non-ferrous sector seems to have aroused the attention of market participants during the two days of trading. For example, yesterday, the colored plate was first Yi Houyang, the average loss in the non-ferrous plate sector was close to 3% at one time. The closing time was more interesting. The average increase in the sector was 2.6%, and it was an important driving force that drove yesterday's index from green to red, then from the last 5 transactions. Looking at the situation of the day, the cumulative gains of the non-ferrous sector reached 4.49%, ranking second in all sectors. How should we understand and look at the performance of the recent colored sector? Whether the non-ferrous sector will be able to greet the end of the year? To come to a new round of market-like outbreaks that are similar to those in October, let's connect with guests from Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen to discuss such a hot topic. The first thing we need to connect here is the Shanghai studio. The guests we invited, Shanghai Securities Strategy Analyst Tu Jun, Tu Jun, hello, we come from the overall market structure If it is broken, the recent rise is relatively good. As for the periodic weighted plates of non-ferrous metals and real estate, some hot spots in the early period, such as medicine, alcohol, and electronic information, have all undergone a different degree of adjustment, especially yesterday, even yesterday afternoon. When the broad market rebounded, we noticed that in the direction of capital flow, electronic components and so on have also emerged as a state of outflow of funds. So at present, when we look at the situation in all aspects of the market together, it is not an investment at present. There is a process of transitioning from small and medium market value varieties to large market value varieties and cyclic varieties. Tu Jun, your point of view.