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At present, there are three influential iron ore spot indexes in the international market: Global Steel News' TSI index, Metal Guide (MB) MBIO index and Platts' Platts index. Quotes vary.
Under the impetus of the mine, many steel companies chose or “selected†Platts. Since then, the high and low of the Platts index has largely replaced the fixed annual benchmark price, reflecting the price trend of iron ore.
However, after the “selected†index pricing, what exactly is this index, domestic steel companies, and even the entire industry still lack understanding. Can this index truly reflect changes in iron ore prices? What is the relationship between it and the mine? Will this index make the steel industry pay more? Can domestic steel companies participate in the generation of the index?
The Shanghai Securities News exclusively reveals the core index of this iron ore price.
"Puhl's index" is not an index
Chinese companies do not understand the ore index, and it seems that there is no need to understand it before. In just a few months, all steel mills have to rely on it to determine their own cost price. According to a survey by the reporter, the Platts index is not a true “indexâ€, and it is not even a weighted average of the transaction price of the day, but only an “assessmentâ€.
“The most accurate expression of the Platts Index should be the 'price assessment'. It is only the industry that uses our valuation as the benchmark for the contract price, so producers and users often refer to it as the 'index price'.†For Platts Platts Metal Group Market Reporting Director
Francis
For Browne, the first explanation he would like to make to the mill was the true nature of Platts. Some of these steel mills have already contacted them many times, and some have even been their source of information, but there are very few who really know how to prepare this index.
Browne told this reporter that Platts has a list of institutions involved in spot market transactions, including mines, traders, steel mills, freight forwarders, financial institutions, etc. It is said that there are hundreds. They are known as Platts' "inquiry object."
On each trading day, Platts editors will contact some of the parties involved in the spot market transaction to ask about the day's trading situation, such as "How many single transactions are there today" or "How to look at today's prices."
This kind of inquiry usually takes the form of telephone or network.
At 6:30 pm Beijing/Singapore time, the transaction will end. The Platts editor will select the “most competitive†on the day based on the all-day inquiry and the situation at the end of the transaction. The price of the deal.
“We talk to a group of core players every day. They are steel mills, traders and mines that are active in the spot market for a long time.†Browne told reporters that some “very active†inquiry objects are contacted every day, while others It may be less related because of low participation. When asked about “the proportion of mines, steel mills and traders in the inquiry objectâ€, Browne told this reporter: “Platinum Energy Information is concerned with the quality of information rather than quantity.â€
That is to say, the daily ore price announced by Platts is an “evaluation†that is comprehensively considered after the staff members call the inquiry object to inquire about the transaction status on the day or the opinion on the trend. There may also be no transaction on the day to complete the actual transaction at that price. Platts explained that the reason why the average transaction price of the day is not used as the final quotation is to obtain the final price data based on the inquiry and offer situation if there is no transaction at all. “The iron ore market is not like the stock market, and a lot of transactions are completed every day. In addition, the quality of iron ore is not uniform, we must reflect the price trend of the day through the evaluation under certain standards.†Browne said .
Is it fair?
For a price index, or “price evaluationâ€, the information provided by each inquiry object will occupy a large proportion in the final quotation, which is the core factor.
There have been market rumors that among the three indices, Platts has given the highest share of the mine in the offer. In addition, although the mainstream mines represented by Vale have publicly stated in Shanghai, the three iron ore indices, steel mills can choose their own, but more information shows that if you need to recommend, they prefer Platts. The relationship between Platts and the three major mines cannot but cause many speculations.
“In fact, Platts does not have a cooperative relationship with the three major mines. They are just one of our inquiry objects.†In response to the above questions, Browne emphasized to the reporter that Platts’ inquiry is active in the spot market. The subject. Since the three major mines are not active in the spot market, Platts “may be more likely to talk to other market playersâ€.
"In contrast, Platts should be more closely linked to Indian mines. In addition, non-mainstream mines such as Australia and Ukraine are also our frequent inquiry targets," Browne said.
Although efforts were made to clarify the “cooperation relationship†between the index itself and the three major mines, some insiders pointed out that as a monopoly power of the iron ore supply market, the influence of the three major mines cannot be ignored.
The three major mines account for more than 60% of the global iron ore supply market, and their shipments directly affect the market's supply and demand balance. Even if they rarely participate in the spot market transactions, it is also the dominant force in the spot market price. An industry insider who did not want to be named said. The person believes that regardless of whether or not the mine and the index institution are relatively "independent", under such a supply and demand mechanism, whether or not they participate in "spot trading" is beneficial to the monopoly party. "The impact of mainstream mines on index prices does not need to be reflected in whether it becomes a regular inquiry object, but more on the mechanism and deeper forces."
So in the inquiry, how many steel mills are there, and in what position? Browne said that the Chinese companies that Platts has contacted are both state-owned and privately-owned, regardless of size. “There are thousands of companies in the steel industry, but only a small percentage are active in the market,†Browne said.
It is understood that in Platts's inquiry object, the scale is too small, and the long association is insufficient, so steel enterprises that often participate in spot mining transactions account for the majority of the inquiry objects. And Baosteel, which is almost all of the ultra-large steel companies that purchase the agreement mines, has very little contact with Platts.
In the industry's view, Platts' scope of inquiry is itself a topic worth exploring.
Due to the emphasis on “participating in spot trading†and “activeâ€, Platts's source is inevitably more characterized by small and scattered. The most active part of the market is probably not a mine or a steel mill, but a trader at an intermediate stage. A person in charge of the import and export department of a private steel enterprise with an annual output of 4 million tons in Tangshan, Hebei, told this reporter that for steel mills, they most hope to directly understand the transaction price between the mine and the steel mill, instead of The valuation of many traders in the hands of several hands.
The final consumer of iron ore, such as large and medium-sized enterprises such as Baosteel, may be absent from the inquiry because it is “not activeâ€.
“The influence of large enterprises like Baosteel on market demand is large, but it is difficult to influence the index.†The above analysts said that the ore supply market is monopolized, so the three major mines can also affect the price without participating in the spot market. But the demand market for ore is very fragmented. Large steel companies may be able to partially influence market sentiment through some cyclical purchases, but they do not have as much power as mines.
More importantly, even if the inquiry is absent from the formation mechanism of the ore index, the final use of this index for ore cost accounting is exactly the “inactive†enterprise like Baosteel. This became a paradox. And in the big steel mills with more long coal mines, the more obvious it is.
Now the pricing between the spot and the long association is characterized by a close correlation and a relative lag. It may be possible to mend the deviations created by the mechanism, but there is no doubt that the current rules of the game—such as the compilation of the ore index—are in the hands of others.
Qi Lu, a steel industry analyst at Qilu Securities, told reporters that perhaps for Chinese steel companies, in the case that the mineral price index has become the de facto pricing core, what can be done at present is only through the preparation of more participating indices. The process, to fight for the right to speak, to fight for possible rights for themselves. Although, this part of the space looks quite limited.
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Demystifying the iron ore Platts index spot pricing model is questioned
2010 is a turning point in the iron ore pricing system. The price of the annual long association, which has been in use for 40 years, has been subverted and replaced by a quarterly pricing mechanism based on the spot market. According to the pricing formula of the three major mines, the iron ore price of each quarter will be determined according to the average price of the spot market in the Chinese market in the previous quarter.