Since the fourth quarter of last year, the domestic steel market has been in a relatively large pressure cycle, and social inventories have continued to rise. Especially around the Spring Festival, as the effective market demand has gradually weakened, social inventories have risen rapidly, and construction of steel products has increased. Social inventory pressure is relatively large. This kind of pressure on social inventory stocks reached a high point in early March. Recently, both the rebar market price in the Beijing market and the hot-rolled coil market price in the Tianjin market have risen by a certain margin. The most critical point is that although the market price of some varieties has not changed, the market turnover It began to gradually enlarge, which shows that the supply and demand of the market is undergoing subtle changes. After the market operation is gradually stabilized, the market's wait-and-see mentality will gradually weaken, which is conducive to the further amplification of stimulated transactions. Therefore, after the market has gradually stabilized, the domestic steel market will gradually enter the “de-stocking†stage. According to the law of market operation, the market will undergo many tests at this stage, and changes in market prices will also fluctuate repeatedly. The effective market demand has been enlarged, but at the same time as digesting the actual output of the current steel mills, it also has to complete a certain percentage of “destocking†tasks. This pressure is very large.
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First, the domestic steel market began to enter the “de-stocking†phase Once the steel market entered the “de-stocking†cycle, the characteristics of its performance, first, the overall market is still in a very depressed state, the market is still a strong wait-and-see psychology, the overall price trend of the market, Still in a state of inertial fall; Second, some varieties, at least the price of which is in a lower category, have shown signs of stabilization and recovery in their market prices. Even a small extent will bring certain confidence to the market. Third, rough. The output of steel is basically at a lower level. Fourth, the effective demand of the market begins to quietly increase, and a small amount of off-site funds begin to enter the procurement. From the above major market characteristics, the current domestic steel market began to enter the “de-stocking†stage, and this feature is increasingly evident.
At present, from the perspective of the overall social inventory of domestic steel products, it is already at a level of about 20 million tons, which is a relatively high level corresponding to a daily output of 2 million tons of crude steel. At present, the social bank of wire products and rebar products in construction steel is about 13 million tons, of which the Guangzhou market has the highest inventory, which has a lot to do with the seasonal inventory concentration, since the fourth quarter of last year, the Guangzhou market The market price of construction steel has been at a high level. Compared with the Beijing market, the gap between the market prices of rebar has once widened to about RMB 400/t. Under such a large price difference, the resources in the north have been concentrated southwards. The Guangzhou market has brought about a sharp increase in concentrated social stocks. At present, the social inventory of construction steel is more than 1.6 million tons, which is a relatively high inventory level. In the case of weak demand, although steel mills and market users have all carried out appropriate resource diversions, the inventory of the construction steel market has obviously increased around the Spring Festival. The current social inventory of construction steel in the Beijing market is already at 100. At the level of 10,000 tons, the pressure of its social inventory is quite large; the Shanghai market is located in the middle market between the north and the south, and its construction steel inventory is relatively stable, and it has been at a level of 600,000 tons. First, the price is below the middle level. Level, it is difficult to stimulate a large amount of resources to enter. Second, the rules and characteristics of market operations will not cause a significant increase in the construction steel in the Shanghai market. Social inventories in other market regions are also under increasing pressure. The stock market in Tianjin is more than 500,000 tons. As for the social steel stocks in Shenyang's construction steel industry, it also has a large social stock of over 600,000 tons. In general, the social inventory of construction steel products, due to its variety characteristics, coupled with the impact of the current seasonal, social inventory has reached a peak, with the slow start of the steel market demand, inventory will gradually enter the "destocking" stage .
From the social inventory of sheet metal, the total inventory of hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils is over 6 million tons, which is slightly less than the pressure of construction steel products. This is also related to changes in the use of products and seasonal changes. Great relationship. In addition, the export of sheet products also played a certain role in alleviating the domestic social inventory. At present, the Shanghai market has a hot rolled coil market with a social inventory of about 1 million tons, and a cold plate with a social inventory of about 400,000 tons. This is relatively large in absolute terms, and the recent increase is also relatively large; the market in Guangzhou The social inventory is over 800,000 tons, and the inventory pressure of the cold plate is relatively large. At around 600,000 tons, the inventory increase is also relatively large. From the perspective of changes in inventory, the difference in inventory between plate areas is not very large, making the inventory difference between the areas not very large.
Second, in the process of “de-stockingâ€, the market is still facing downward pressure. Although the current market price is already at a relatively low level, due to the huge inventory pressure of the market, there is a large gap between regions and varieties. With price differences, the market will continue to fluctuate repeatedly. Such fluctuations are weak and weak, and there is still a greater wait-and-see mentality.
At present, the market prices of construction steel in the Beijing and Shanghai markets may all face the test of 3,100 yuan/ton price threshold. Although the initial price has received some support near 3,100 yuan/ton, this instability will continue to exist. The market price in Guangzhou has fallen below 3,400 yuan/ton. Relatively speaking, the price in the Guangzhou market still has a certain attraction. Under the pressure of huge social inventory, the market price is also difficult to stabilize. From the perspective of the price relationship between varieties, there are also certain differences, but this difference has little effect on market price fluctuations. The market price of hot-rolled coils in Tianjin market is 100 yuan/ton more than that in the regional rebar market. This gap in the listed market is slightly larger, and the difference in the Guangzhou market is not very large. Under a relatively weak overall market, this Differences will create greater pressure on the market and will not be conducive to the stability of the market operation. Under this difference, the overall pressure on social stocks will not diminish, but it will have a positive impact on the inventory of individual varieties. In the process of market price fluctuations, market transactions will gradually increase, which is conducive to active market transactions, for the market outlook. Running stable is beneficial.
In March, the overall social inventory pressure in the domestic steel market reached an extreme. Under the influence of the simultaneous drop in the price of upstream raw materials, it is difficult to significantly reduce crude steel production, and the pressure on the market is still relatively large. However, after the market has run through, the seasonal off-season of the market will gradually withdraw, which is conducive to the stability of the market operation, so that the market will enter the "de-stocking" stage.